Q2 2025 · Quarterly review

Growth won globally.
Value won in Canada.

The second quarter of 2025 brought mixed results across global markets, with real differences between countries, sectors and factors. Nothing moved in the same direction at once, which makes it a useful quarter to look at closely.

Country performance

Korea, Israel and Greece led, each posting double-digit gains above 20%. At the other end, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Thailand finished negative, with returns dipping as low as −10%.

Canada landed in the middle at roughly 5%.

Sector highlights

In Canada, information technology, financials and consumer discretionary led. Energy and real estate showed minimal growth.

Factor performance in Canada

CanadaSizeValueGrowthHigh prof.Low prof.
Large8.2%9.3%7.2%6.2%10.0%
Small12.8%11.4%14.1%13.1%12.4%

Canada market returns in Canadian dollars, Q2 2025. Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All rights reserved.

Small caps outperformed large caps, 12.8% against 8.2%. Value beat growth within large caps at 9.3% against 7.2%, but the reverse held within small caps. Low-profitability stocks slightly outperformed high-profitability ones among large caps, and the pattern flipped again among small caps.

Factor performance globally

All countrySizeValueGrowthHigh prof.Low prof.
Large6.4%2.5%10.4%6.4%6.4%
Small5.5%3.5%7.5%5.7%5.4%

All country markets returns in Canadian dollars, Q2 2025. Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All rights reserved.

Globally the picture inverted. Growth beat value within both large and small caps, and by a wide margin among large caps at 10.4% against 2.5%. Large caps edged out small caps, 6.4% against 5.5%.

By region: in the US, growth dominated, with large-cap growth returning about 12% while value lagged at 0.8%. In developed markets outside Canada and the US, small caps led at 11.3% with value trailing growth. In emerging markets, growth at 9.5% outperformed value, and small caps kept pace.

Value led in Canada and lost badly everywhere else, in the same three months. Owning one region, or one factor, would have given you a very different quarter depending on which one you picked.

Bull markets last longer than you'd think

Length of bull markets, in months

86 50 44 26 32 74 60 148 60 131 21 31 Average 67 months 1949 1987 2009 2022 Months, by bull market start date
Source: Carson Investment Research, FactSet. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and historical averages do not predict the length of any future market cycle.

Bull markets have historically lasted far longer than bear markets. The average runs about 67 months, or five and a half years. The longest stretched 148 months from 1987 to 2000, and even the post-2008 recovery ran 131 months from 2009 to 2020.

What this means for a portfolio

Trying to time entries and exits tends to cost more in missed opportunity than it saves in avoided declines. Staying invested through cycles has historically rewarded patience.

The other takeaway is the one this quarter makes for itself. Diversification across countries, sectors and factors matters because leadership doesn't announce itself in advance. Relying on a single region or a single strategy means accepting that you'll sometimes miss the strongest area entirely.

Questions about your own portfolio?

Happy to walk through how these returns and trends actually affect what you hold, and what if anything is worth changing. Book a time and we'll talk it through.

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Guillaume

Guillaume Girard, CFA, CFP®
Founder & Financial Planner
Girard Wealth  ·  Victoria, BC
Main Line: 226-241-4559

Portfolio Strategies Corporation

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Data and research from Dimensional Fund Advisors using index funds. Actual portfolio returns may vary.

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