The quarter was noisy.
The portfolios weren't.
Q1 2026 was one of the noisiest quarters in recent memory. Oil hit $100, the US attacked Iran, the Nasdaq whipsawed twice, and growth stocks got crushed.
And yet every diversified portfolio finished positive.
Here's what happened, what it means, and what to watch next.
Our model portfolios this quarter
Despite a rough March, down across all portfolios, January and February built enough cushion to finish the quarter in positive territory. Global diversification and the systematic structure of the portfolio are exactly why.
| Month | 100% equity | 80/20 | 60/40 | 40/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | +3.25% | +2.67% | +2.10% | +1.57% |
| February 2026 | +4.93% | +4.18% | +3.41% | +2.57% |
| March 2026 | −4.71% | −4.09% | −3.41% | −2.78% |
| Q1 total | +3.23% | +2.59% | +1.97% | +1.28% |
The portfolio returns shown are those of the globally diversified Series F funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors used for each allocation, net of the funds’ management fees and operating expenses and before the advisory fee charged on a managed account, which would reduce them; see the fee schedule. They are not the return of any individual client account; a client’s own return will differ with when they invested, contributions, withdrawals, the advisory fee, and any other funds held. As of March 31, 2026. The monthly and quarterly periods shown are not standardized performance periods; standardized returns are available on request. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future results.
March was painful. The quarter was positive. That's exactly why we don't judge portfolios month to month.
How the equity engine stacked up
The DFA Canada Global Equity Portfolio returned 3.23% for Q1 2026 against a custom benchmark that finished at −0.03%. The deliberate tilts toward value stocks and smaller companies, built into the portfolio's design, drove the difference.
| Period | Fund | Index | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 (3 months) | +3.23% | −0.03% | +3.26% |
| 1 year | +26.21% | +22.00% | +4.21% |
DFA Canada Global Equity Portfolio, Series F, net of the fund’s management fees and operating expenses and before any advisory fee, against its custom benchmark. As of March 31, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
The headlines that filled the quarter
A lot happened. Oil crossed $100. The US and Israel attacked Iran. Gold surged past $5,000. The Nasdaq both crashed and rallied, sometimes in the same week.
| January | February | March |
|---|---|---|
| Dow closes above 49,000 for the first time | House approves measure to end partial government shutdown | US lost 92,000 jobs in February in an unexpected downturn |
| Tensions over Greenland rattle Wall Street | US added 130,000 jobs in January | Oil tops $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 |
| Gold surges above $5,000 on shutdown fears | Home sales post biggest monthly decline in nearly four years | Fed holds steady and maintains rate-cut projection |
| Fed holds rates steady, S&P 500 crosses 7,000 | US and Israel attack Iran | Nasdaq leads rally on hope the Iran war may end soon |
Headlines are shown for context only and are not offered to explain market returns.
These are a reminder that daily events are best viewed from a long-term perspective, and that investment decisions made on the news alone rarely age well. If you reacted to any of them, you likely made the wrong move.
What worked, and where
The clearest pattern this quarter: value beat growth in all four regions at the same time. Canada's small caps led every asset class globally. The US was the only region that finished negative in aggregate, and even there value investors came out ahead.
| Region | Value | Growth | Small cap | Large cap | Marketwide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | +8.08% | −2.14% | +11.37% | +3.08% | +3.93% |
| United States | +3.93% | −7.94% | +2.63% | −2.54% | −2.31% |
| Intl. developed | +3.84% | −2.98% | +0.53% | +0.55% | +0.54% |
| Emerging markets | +3.38% | +0.35% | +1.06% | +2.12% | +2.12% |
Returns in Canadian dollars, Q1 2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, MSCI data © 2026, all rights reserved.
Value beating growth across all four regions in the same quarter doesn't happen often, but it happens enough to matter over decades. The tilt toward value and smaller companies is systematic, not speculative.
Norway led the world
The top-performing country market in Q1 2026 wasn't the US, and it wasn't China. It was Norway, up 27% in Canadian dollars. The Oslo Børs was driven by surging energy stocks and a strong currency. No strategist had it on their radar at the start of January.
Top country returns · Q1 2026 (CAD)
Nobody predicted it. That's why we own all of them.
Why we're not guessing
Q1 2026 is a good example of what evidence-based investing looks like in practice. Norway surged. The US stumbled. Growth got punished. Value won in every region, at the same time. None of it was predicted.
The portfolio isn't built around forecasts. It's built around factors: value, profitability and size, persistent drivers of return documented across markets, decades and economic regimes, and implemented systematically by Dimensional Fund Advisors since 1981.
One quarter doesn't make a case. One hundred years of data does.
That's what gives us confidence. Not about what happens next month, or which country tops the leaderboard next quarter. Nobody knows that. What we do know is that the structure of the portfolio is designed to capture returns wherever they appear, keep costs low, stay disciplined when markets are noisy, and let time do the heavy lifting.
Quarters like this one, messy and unpredictable and full of headlines that turned out to mean nothing, are exactly why it exists.
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Guillaume Girard, CFA, CFP®
Founder & Financial Planner
Girard Wealth · Victoria, BC
Main Line: 226-241-4559
Portfolio Strategies Corporation
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual funds, nor does it constitute investment, tax or legal advice. Please consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before investing, as mutual funds carry various risks depending on the nature of the fund. You should read the applicable fund facts or prospectus document carefully before investing.
Performance. All performance figures are historical and cover the periods and as-at date shown above. The portfolio returns shown are those of the globally diversified Series F funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors that form the core of what is recommended, net of the funds’ management fees and operating expenses and before the advisory fee charged on a managed account, which would reduce them. They are not the returns of any individual client account: a client’s own return will differ with when they invested, contributions and withdrawals, the advisory fee, and any other funds they hold. The periods shown are not standardized performance periods; standardized returns are available on request. Index, factor and country returns are unmanaged, shown for context only, not available for direct investment, and do not reflect any fees or expenses. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future results; investment values can fall as well as rise. Sources: Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC and fund company reporting.
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